Intent versus timetable: who is actually leaving within two years

The full distribution for “Are you actively planning to migrate outside of Kerala within the next 24 months?” (n = 270) is: Undecided — 41.5% (112); Yes, definitely — 32.2% (87); No, I intend to stay in Kerala — 26.3% (71).

The cohort is moderately concentrated on this question. One option leads without dominating, so the second and third answers carry real policy weight. The smallest recorded answer, No, I intend to stay in Kerala, still represents 71 people — a group large enough to matter in programme design even at 26.3%.

“Are you personally interested in or planning to migrate outside of Kerala for studies or a career?” (n = 399) returns: Yes, I am interested / planning to migrate — 67.7% (270); No, I intend to stay and build my career inside Kerala — 32.3% (129).

Placed beside the primary figure, this measure shows a majority position — 67.7% on Yes, I am interested / planning to migrate — which is the more reliable of the two anchors here. Read together, the two questions describe migration intent as a pattern reported across the cohort rather than an issue confined to a minority of respondents.

The sample is a community-recruited cohort of 399 respondents surveyed between 21 May and 28 June 2026. Figures describe this cohort; they are not state-level prevalence estimates and should not be reported as such.

The composition of the sample also shapes the totals: 74.4% of respondents fall in the older student and early-career band, and 72.7% identify as male. Any reading by gender, district or occupation needs disaggregated fieldwork this instrument was not designed to deliver.

The instrument records one moment in time, so nothing here identifies a cause or a trend. Statements about mechanism in this brief are interpretive and flagged as such.